The Impact of Climate Variability on Crimes Against Women: Dowry

We examine the effect of local precipitation shocks on appropriation risk faced by women using annual data from 583 districts in India over the period 2002-2007. We use annual deviations of rainfall from the long term local mean to isolate the impact of rain shocks on crimes against women. We find that dry shocks (below-average rainfall) increase reported domestic violence and dowry deaths, as well as dowry payments. However, sexual harassment declines in dry shock years. These patterns are consistent with a model of consumption smoothing by those exposed to weather risks, but inconsistent with the alternative hypothesis that general unrest causes these crimes to increase. We examine two mitigation strategies. We find no evidence that women’s political representation allays these risks. Access to groundwater irrigation worsens the effects of dry shocks, and mitigates those of wet shocks. These findings suggest that access to groundwater irrigation induces agricultural households to opt into risky agricultural practices that increase income volatility. JEL classification: O10, O13, Q54